Polymarket · geopolitical markets · public on-chain data
Geopolitical Smart Money
The few but deadly traders: wallets that make a handful of bets on war, foreign-policy and conflict markets — and are mostly right, with real size. Profit is reconstructed deterministically from each wallet's complete on-chain trade history versus the resolved outcome.
Sharp wallets
90
Markets analyzed
60
Combined profit
$246,898
Last updated
Jun 29, 2026
| # | Trader | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1mperator170x1642…5988 | 6 | 100% | 59¢ | 1.58 | $7,320 | 50% | $2,436 |
| 2 | 0x2370…0e10 | 3 | 100% | 60¢ | 1.44 | $3,886 | 29% | $4,453 |
| 3 | nicekitty0x814a…25ad | 3 | 100% | 63¢ | 1.23 | $2,000 | 46% | $1,450 |
| 4 | Libitum0xce8f…4400 | 3 | 100% | 72¢ | 1.15 | $10,657 | 45% | $7,863 |
| 5 | Retired-Mentat0x081d…8c34 | 3 | 100% | 64¢ | 1.11 | $1,318 | 44% | $1,009 |
| 6 | tinman20x9bae…5d34 | 3 | 100% | 71¢ | 1.07 | $5,395 | 40% | $4,485 |
| 7 | funnyday0xd727…ecce | 3 | 100% | 71¢ | 1.00 | $2,614 | 54% | $1,609 |
| 8 | Hamurabi0x1c9b…b444 | 4 | 100% | 70¢ | 0.99 | $1,865 | 46% | $1,020 |
| 9 | Barcide0xd04d…3dda | 4 | 100% | 75¢ | 0.90 | $4,300 | 32% | $3,312 |
| 10 | alwaysOn0xc550…272d | 6 | 100% | 75¢ | 0.86 | $3,257 | 31% | $1,747 |
| 11 | nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | 12 | 100% | 80¢ | 0.80 | $10,353 | 22% | $3,835 |
| 12 | Wyrdylak0x61c3…54c2 | 3 | 100% | 79¢ | 0.79 | $7,130 | 72% | $3,315 |
| 13 | CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | 8 | 100% | 79¢ | 0.71 | $2,705 | 19% | $1,790 |
| 14 | Tiger0210x2c3c…62eb | 3 | 100% | 74¢ | 0.68 | $405 | 35% | $383 |
| 15 | SomeBodyOnceToldMe0x6e5f…9d60 | 5 | 100% | 78¢ | 0.63 | $688 | 20% | $684 |
| 16 | Cloudy-Felony0xcbeb…e6e0 | 6 | 100% | 83¢ | 0.62 | $5,227 | 17% | $5,239 |
| 17 | Jooba0xe28a…8072 | 3 | 100% | 77¢ | 0.58 | $329 | 30% | $364 |
| 18 | Kalags0xb8e4…2dae | 3 | 100% | 77¢ | 0.57 | $321 | 15% | $698 |
| 19 | KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | 3 | 100% | 80¢ | 0.53 | $390 | 9% | $1,434 |
| 20 | BillyBoy940x94b0…9d34 | 3 | 100% | 77¢ | 0.52 | $193 | 21% | $307 |
| 21 | JohnFrumAmerica0x1fd8…741b | 3 | 100% | 81¢ | 0.51 | $498 | 24% | $705 |
| 22 | Straight-Split0x7108…7492 | 5 | 100% | 84¢ | 0.50 | $1,542 | 16% | $1,948 |
| 23 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Caliber0x18b0…2354 | 6 | 100% | 85¢ | 0.49 | $1,478 | 30% | $809 |
| 24 | QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | 3 | 100% | 85¢ | 0.48 | $1,877 | 15% | $4,134 |
| 25 | scottilicious0x000d…758e | 8 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.47 | $47,862 | 11% | $53,333 |
| 26 | AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804 | 3 | 100% | 88¢ | 0.46 | $6,583 | 13% | $17,164 |
| 27 | anon15650x7bda…121b | 4 | 100% | 88¢ | 0.45 | $6,453 | 10% | $15,878 |
| 28 | simpleman0xbe89…b88c | 4 | 100% | 85¢ | 0.41 | $496 | 7% | $1,794 |
| 29 | hot-0970x9314…1e98 | 3 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.38 | $9,614 | 161% | $1,991 |
| 30 | oVyg7f0x5f39…a78c | 3 | 100% | 83¢ | 0.38 | $168 | 5% | $1,244 |
| 31 | bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | 4 | 100% | 85¢ | 0.37 | $308 | 13% | $577 |
| 32 | DFKK0x1a0d…38a1 | 4 | 100% | 89¢ | 0.33 | $904 | 12% | $1,816 |
| 33 | How.Dare.You0x4bbe…2cf3 | 3 | 100% | 92¢ | 0.32 | $8,274 | 9% | $31,328 |
| 34 | Bidensupporter1230x2d73…c0f8 | 3 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.30 | $720 | 11% | $2,196 |
| 35 | Rasalgethi0x8393…f0ae | 3 | 100% | 89¢ | 0.30 | $597 | 8% | $2,431 |
| 36 | cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | 3 | 100% | 88¢ | 0.30 | $367 | 8% | $1,481 |
| 37 | Miracle0070x4728…6426 | 3 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.29 | $961 | 11% | $3,008 |
| 38 | Olololo0xb75c…2159 | 4 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.28 | $7,091 | 10% | $17,465 |
| 39 | Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | 4 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.27 | $459 | 7% | $1,751 |
| 40 | ondra1230x662c…bfe7 | 3 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.25 | $344 | 6% | $1,900 |
| 41 | TaylorSchifff0xaa68…94a7 | 3 | 100% | 90¢ | 0.25 | $261 | 12% | $749 |
| 42 | Dargdarg0xecef…b593 | 3 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.24 | $8,251 | 37% | $7,517 |
| 43 | bama1240xe5c8…d3e7 | 3 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.24 | $4,541 | 5% | $28,212 |
| 44 | kekkone0x39d0…4fe8 | 3 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.24 | $2,708 | 153% | $591 |
| 45 | MisTKy30x088f…c9e7 | 14 | 93% | 94¢ | 0.23 | $12,306 | 8% | $11,269 |
| 46 | GrayCat0x3762…7ff4 | 4 | 100% | 92¢ | 0.23 | $849 | 8% | $2,599 |
| 47 | willis11110xda47…f40a | 3 | 100% | 92¢ | 0.22 | $730 | 6% | $3,919 |
| 48 | anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | 3 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.21 | $698 | 18% | $1,275 |
| 49 | archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | 3 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.20 | $2,029 | 45% | $1,496 |
| 50 | 3r3rsdfs0xdc2a…97aa | 4 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.20 | $1,247 | 7% | $4,686 |
| 51 | keribit0xc9dc…9026 | 5 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.20 | $747 | 7% | $2,159 |
| 52 | ImHereForTheRewards0x3a86…dea8 | 10 | 90% | 94¢ | 0.19 | $1,902 | 4% | $4,684 |
| 53 | SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | 4 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.19 | $1,364 | 6% | $5,265 |
| 54 | Delicious-Middle0x69bc…577d | 5 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.19 | $1,247 | 2% | $12,933 |
| 55 | Oniidon0xeb68…3a21 | 3 | 100% | 92¢ | 0.19 | $154 | 13% | $388 |
| 56 | h0385960273550x88b6…3cff | 5 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.18 | $338 | 15% | $447 |
| 57 | Minecraft0x094e…f10b | 3 | 100% | 92¢ | 0.18 | $271 | 8% | $1,086 |
| 58 | Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | 3 | 100% | 91¢ | 0.18 | $130 | 7% | $591 |
| 59 | Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | 4 | 100% | 91¢ | 0.17 | $83 | 3% | $756 |
| 60 | longtern0x4bb2…6c95 | 7 | 100% | 93¢ | 0.15 | $223 | 3% | $1,149 |
| 61 | Sardinianshepherd0xf42f…a6a7 | 4 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.14 | $284 | 20% | $360 |
| 62 | 0x253d…3307 | 4 | 100% | 95¢ | 0.13 | $660 | 5% | $3,575 |
| 63 | OkaneKasegu0x5d74…ee45 | 3 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.13 | $178 | 6% | $961 |
| 64 | MeowMix0xad86…cd10 | 3 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.13 | $121 | 7% | $608 |
| 65 | quick-turtle0xf434…c6aa | 3 | 100% | 96¢ | 0.11 | $378 | 13% | $972 |
| 66 | YasH0x1d91…a32a | 3 | 100% | 94¢ | 0.11 | $77 | 6% | $409 |
| 67 | T1230x49ae…f3ba | 3 | 100% | 96¢ | 0.10 | $516 | 4% | $4,388 |
| 68 | Trustinghorse0x92a6…8b84 | 3 | 100% | 97¢ | 0.09 | $1,052 | 3% | $11,647 |
| 69 | Lkeprfuh0xf786…73cc | 4 | 100% | 95¢ | 0.09 | $60 | 3% | $578 |
| 70 | Merry-Tan0x1c7e…a4b0 | 3 | 100% | 97¢ | 0.08 | $1,992 | 129% | $515 |
| 71 | GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | 7 | 100% | 98¢ | 0.07 | $1,335 | 2% | $10,238 |
| 72 | classified0x12d6…f2a8 | 6 | 100% | 98¢ | 0.07 | $645 | 2% | $5,023 |
| 73 | 878675645768790xeb6f…25f0 | 3 | 100% | 97¢ | 0.07 | $238 | 1% | $5,418 |
| 74 | Aragorn-II0xc9ad…79d0 | 3 | 100% | 96¢ | 0.07 | $105 | 4% | $948 |
| 75 | ExhaustedBoyBilly0x96b5…f5e7 | 8 | 100% | 98¢ | 0.06 | $4,636 | 5% | $12,556 |
| 76 | rpo0x815f…f1b3 | 4 | 100% | 98¢ | 0.05 | $214 | 2% | $2,789 |
| 77 | chikara0x681b…bfed | 3 | 100% | 97¢ | 0.04 | $39 | 3% | $467 |
| 78 | tf20xa102…36d9 | 3 | 100% | 99¢ | 0.03 | $1,359 | 1% | $50,182 |
| 79 | noreasapa0x4ad6…464c | 4 | 100% | 99¢ | 0.02 | $1,111 | 7% | $4,102 |
| 80 | Talophex0xd0db…b117 | 3 | 100% | 99¢ | 0.02 | $54 | 1% | $1,462 |
| 81 | Ordon0x8ebf…83ce | 3 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.01 | $23,185 | 49% | $15,662 |
| 82 | onekey090x45b3…35bc | 4 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.01 | $647 | 0% | $68,618 |
| 83 | Qtyu0x7d22…f0cf | 3 | 100% | 99¢ | 0.01 | $141 | 1% | $7,024 |
| 84 | baE92E7959377B18Fd63b772C74147724E0.E74750xb0d6…7475 | 3 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.01 | $119 | 0% | $10,048 |
| 85 | HowToBasic0xc639…c5a2 | 4 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.01 | $65 | 0% | $3,832 |
| 86 | Motionless-Feedback0xd9b5…9db1 | 3 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.01 | $50 | 0% | $3,724 |
| 87 | NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | 3 | 100% | 99¢ | 0.01 | $31 | 1% | $1,402 |
| 88 | SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | 4 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.00 | $561 | 0% | $86,685 |
| 89 | KazukoSafaa0xf1ce…e8db | 4 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.00 | $9 | 0% | $1,268 |
| 90 | Aurorax0xcca1…8b8a | 3 | 100% | 100¢ | 0.00 | $4 | 0% | $284 |
The filter — “few but deadly”
- 3–19 geopolitical markets traded (few — not high-volume)
- ≥ 90% hit rate (predicted the winner)
- ≤ 150 trades/day overall — selective, not an algorithmic bot
- ≥ $250 average bet (real money, not dust) & net profitable
Reading the board
- Hit% is forecasting accuracy: how often their main bet backed the side that actually won — notwhether they made money. Scalping a wrong-side price spike for profit doesn't count as a correct call.
- Entry is the tell: a low ¢ means they backed the winning side cheap — a contrarian who was right, not a favorite-backer.
- Edge blends accuracy, conviction (cheap entry) and realized size into one rank. Click any trader for their full play-by-play.